Strait of Hormuz and the Iran war: what a closure does to stocks, sector by sector
Under review: something we watch has changed (tRUCE STATUS CHANGE, rED SEA BYPASS THREATENED). The figures stand until the review is done.
What is happening
The 2026 Hormuz war reached ceasefire on 8 April; the crisis has not. The strait is still disrupted under an armed truce that could hold, normalise or break.
About a fifth of the world’s oil and nearly a fifth of its liquefied natural gas pass through here, plus up to 30% of the fertiliser traded worldwide.
Three ways it could go
Calm case · Normalisation
The peace deal holds. The mines are cleared, insurers stop charging wartime prices and tankers use the strait again as they did before the war. Oil drifts back to about $70–78 a barrel, close to where it was before the fighting, and Gulf countries start rebuilding.
We put the chance of this at about 1 in 4 (unlikely).
Middle case · Armed Truce
Roughly where things stand today. The fighting has stopped, but nothing is settled. Ships going through are attacked almost every day and insurance is very expensive. Oil still gets out, about half as much as before the war, mostly on tankers that travel in guarded night convoys with their trackers switched off, so far fewer ships are visible than before. The routes around the strait can be hit too: when drones knocked out a Saudi pipeline in September, oil jumped to $130.80, and in early October it went higher still, to $135.51. Think of it as prices that stay high and can spike without warning.
We put the chance of this at about 1 in 2 (roughly even chance).
Severe case · Re-escalation / Second Closure
The truce breaks and the strait shuts again, and this time the world starts out weaker: oil stockpiles are already used up, mines are already in the water, Gulf oil sites are damaged and insurers have pulled out. Oil could reach $150–180 a barrel, and a worldwide recession becomes a real risk again.
We put the chance of this at about 1 in 4 (unlikely).
Which sectors are exposed
In the case we rate most likely (Armed Truce), the sectors the model shows most exposed are Luxury (−12.0%), Airlines (−11.5%), Autos (−10.5%). The model shows Reconstruction (+25.0%), Defence (+21.2%), LNG (+19.4%) moving the other way.
| Sector | Calm caseNormalisation | Middle caseArmed Truce | Severe caseRe-escalation / Second Closure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luxury | ▼ −4.4% | ▼ −12.0% | ▼ −39.2% |
| EM bonds | ▼ −3.3% | ▼ −8.1% | ▼ −21.0% |
| Autos | ▼ −2.0% | ▼ −10.5% | ▼ −20.6% |
| Airlines | ▼ −1.8% | ▼ −11.5% | ▼ −19.0% |
| Big tech | ▼ −1.5% | ▼ −3.8% | ▼ −12.4% |
| Financials | ▼ −1.5% | ▼ −3.8% | ▼ −11.3% |
| Broad market | ▼ −0.6% | ▼ −1.6% | ▼ −5.3% |
| Semiconductors | ▼ −0.6% | ▼ −1.4% | ▼ −4.4% |
| EM equities | ▼ −0.5% | ▲ +6.0% | ▲ +3.2% |
| Gulf producers | 0.0% | ▲ +5.5% | ▲ +4.4% |
| Utilities | ▲ +1.7% | ▲ +3.2% | ▲ +9.4% |
| Agriculture & food | ▲ +0.3% | ▲ +4.6% | ▲ +10.2% |
| Gold | ▲ +1.8% | ▲ +5.0% | ▲ +15.1% |
| Energy producers | ▲ +2.2% | ▲ +18.5% | ▲ +28.6% |
| Defence | ▲ +14.2% | ▲ +21.2% | ▲ +33.8% |
| Tankers | ▲ +2.4% | ▲ +13.4% | ▲ +35.3% |
| LNG | ▲ +2.8% | ▲ +19.4% | ▲ +36.3% |
| Reconstruction | ▲ +17.0% | ▲ +25.0% | ▲ +38.5% |
These sensitivities were measured against the real 2026 Hormuz war.
What actually moved in the 2026 Iran war, measured from daily prices →
How sure are we?
Fairly sure. These numbers were fitted to how shares actually moved during the 2026 war, so they rest on real market data, not guesswork. But they were fitted on that same war, and no two crises play out exactly alike.
What to watch next
- Truce status: full normalisation of transits, or re-escalation toward a second closure. Either one retires the Armed Truce base case.
- A new measurable shock window — that would trigger a beta refit, a version bump, and a methodology update.
- The Red Sea bypass: the East-West pipeline to Yanbu was shut by drone strikes in September and is only partly restarted. A longer outage, or attacks on Yanbu itself, would push oil back toward the September peak.
- Brent closing above the Armed Truce peak on any day (measured daily): that re-anchors the scenario's oil figure.
Your own holdings
The table shows sectors. To see how this crisis reaches the shares you hold, add them in the Workspace: free, no sign-in needed.
The other crises we model
- Taiwan Strait / Semiconductor Chokepoint UNPRICED
- Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb UNPRICED
- Panama Canal drought UNPRICED
- Korean Peninsula conflict UNPRICED
- US tariff shock EMPIRICAL · one real event, replayed
- Russia–Ukraine war EMPIRICAL · one real event, replayed
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DELAX describes exposure. It is not investment advice.