The 2026 Iran war and the stock market: which sectors rose and which fell
The strait closed on 28 February 2026 and the war reached ceasefire on 8 April 2026; the crisis has not ended. Brent crude was about $70 a barrel before the war and peaked at $138.
Which stocks gained during the war, and which lost
Measured against the US market, the sectors that rose most were Tankers (+29.0%), Energy producers (+23.8%), Agriculture & food (+16.9%).
The sectors that fell most were Luxury (−13.7%), Airlines (−11.3%), Financials (−4.4%).
| Sector | Moveagainst the market | Sharesin the basket |
|---|---|---|
| Tankers | ▲ +29.0% | 6 |
| Energy producers | ▲ +23.8% | 11 |
| Agriculture & food | ▲ +16.9% | 6 |
| LNG | ▲ +16.7% | 6 |
| Semiconductors | ▲ +13.7% | 14 |
| Utilities | ▲ +9.3% | 3 |
| Gold | ▲ +8.3% | 8 |
| Reconstruction | ▲ +4.7% | 6 |
| Big tech | ▲ +4.6% | 6 |
| EM equities | ▲ +4.2% | 10 |
| Gulf producers | ▲ +3.4% | 1 |
| Defence | ▲ +2.8% | 11 |
| EM bonds | ▼ −0.8% | 2 |
| Autos | ▼ −2.0% | 6 |
| Financials | ▼ −4.4% | 4 |
| Airlines | ▼ −11.3% | 5 |
| Luxury | ▼ −13.7% | 3 |
The shares in each basket
- Tankers: Frontline, Scorpio Tankers, Teekay Tankers, International Seaways, DHT Holdings, ZIM Integrated Shipping
- Energy producers: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources, Occidental Petroleum, SLB, Valero Energy, Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund
- Agriculture & food: Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bunge, Mosaic, Nutrien, CF Industries, Corteva
- LNG: Cheniere Energy, EQT, Antero Resources, Williams Companies, Kinder Morgan, Energy Transfer
- Semiconductors: Nvidia, TSMC, AMD, Intel, ASML, Micron Technology, VanEck Semiconductor ETF, United Microelectronics, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Applied Materials, KLA
- Utilities: NextEra Energy, Duke Energy, Southern Company
- Gold: SPDR Gold Shares, VanEck Gold Miners ETF, Newmont, Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines, Franco-Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals, Invesco DB Commodity Index Fund
- Reconstruction: Fluor, AECOM, Quanta Services, Caterpillar, Vulcan Materials, Martin Marietta Materials
- Big tech: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Dell Technologies
- EM equities: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, iShares MSCI India ETF, iShares China Large-Cap ETF, iShares MSCI Mexico ETF, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF, iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF, iShares MSCI China ETF, iShares MSCI South Korea ETF, iShares MSCI Japan ETF
- Gulf producers: iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF
- Defence: RTX, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, Boeing, Huntington Ingalls Industries, L3Harris Technologies, BAE Systems, Leidos, Kratos Defense, iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
- EM bonds: iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF, VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF
- Autos: Tesla, Ford, General Motors, Rivian, NIO, Toyota
- Financials: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Visa
- Airlines: U.S. Global Jets ETF, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines
- Luxury: LVMH, Nike, McDonald's
How this was measured
Each sector is a basket of the shares listed above. Every trading day, the basket's move is the simple average of its shares' moves, minus the S&P 500's (SPY) move that day. Those daily moves are chained into a level, and the figure compares the level's average over the two months from the closure (44 trading days) with its average over the three months before it (61 trading days).
The later window runs to 1 May 2026, past the ceasefire, so it includes the first weeks after it. The daily prices are the ones behind our Shock Desk, checked value for value against the raw prices.
The model's own figures for each scenario are on the crisis page. They are modelled, not measured, and were fitted to an earlier record of these moves.
What it means for your holdings
The crisis page shows what the model says each scenario does to each sector, with the odds and how sure we are. The Workspace shows how it reaches the shares you hold: free, no sign-in needed.
We measure the risk. You make the call.
DELAX describes exposure. It is not investment advice.