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The crises we model

7 geopolitical crises, each with three ways it could go, the odds we give each, and which sectors the model shows exposed. Every crisis carries a trust label: measured from a real event, or estimated because it has never happened.

Strait of Hormuz / Iran ConflictEMPIRICAL Measured · most likely: Armed Truce (about 1 in 2)The 2026 Hormuz war reached ceasefire on 8 April; the crisis has not. The strait is still disrupted under an armed truce that could hold, normalise or break.Taiwan Strait / Semiconductor ChokepointUNPRICED Estimated · most likely: Gray-Zone Pressure (about 6 in 10)Taiwan makes most of the world’s leading-edge chips. A blockade or invasion has never happened, and markets have never priced one.Red Sea / Bab el-MandebUNPRICED Estimated · most likely: Saudi Blockade Enforced (about 7 in 10)Container ships have avoided the Red Sea since December 2023 and have not come back. Freight costs moved; listed shipping shares did not.Panama Canal droughtUNPRICED Estimated · most likely: Managed Dry Season (about 1 in 2)The Panama Canal is short of water again, so fewer ships are allowed through each day. It happened in 2023–24 and is happening again in 2026.Korean Peninsula conflictUNPRICED Estimated · most likely: Tense Standoff (about 9 in 10)North and South Korea are still technically at war: the fighting stopped in 1953 but never formally ended. A new war has never happened, and markets have only flinched at past threats.US tariff shockEMPIRICAL · one real event, replayed Measured · most likely: Current Law (about 6 in 10)In April 2025 the United States put large new taxes on goods from almost every country. Share prices fell fast. Most of those tariffs have since been struck down or replaced with lower ones, but they could come back.Russia–Ukraine warEMPIRICAL · one real event, replayed Measured · most likely: Grinding War (about 8 in 10)Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is still going on. There is no ceasefire. The worst case here is that the war spreads, for example to a NATO country.

We measure the risk. You make the call.