The DELAX Global Strain Index: a geopolitical risk and price pressure index
One number for whether the pressure that reaches ordinary prices is unusually tight. It combines five things measured constantly: oil prices, how fast US consumer prices are rising, how fast world food prices are rising, the US dollar against emerging-market currencies, and conflict in the news.
Latest reading · 2 November 2026
+0.64
That is somewhat tighter than usual. Zero means normal: not zero pressure, but the level that has been typical across the years we have measured.
What is behind it
Each input against its own usual level. Right of the line is tighter than usual.
- Oil prices are high (+1.21)
- US consumer prices are rising faster than usual (+0.55)
- World food prices: near normal (+0.20)
- The dollar against emerging-market currencies: near normal (−0.45)
- Conflict is drawing more attention than usual (+1.68)
Its history since 2007
Monthly averages, recalculated under the current method (version 5), not the figure published on each date. Above zero is tighter than usual.
- Highest since 2007: +2.06 on 8 March 2022.
- Lowest: −0.90 on 1 January 2009.
- The 2026 Hormuz war: −0.43 on 28 February 2026, the strait's closure, and +0.73 on 8 April 2026, the ceasefire. The war reached ceasefire; the crisis has not ended.
How to read it
Zero is normal. A reading of +1 means conditions sit one ordinary-sized swing above normal: noticeably elevated, but the sort of thing that happens from time to time. A reading of +2 or beyond is genuinely unusual.
It is a background average: one loud input (oil, or conflict in the news) is diluted by quiet ones. A war itself is better read crisis by crisis, in what each one does to each kind of share. That is what the crisis pages and sector pages do.
Where the five inputs come from
- Oil price (Brent crude): US Energy Information Administration
- How fast US consumer prices are rising: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, via Federal Reserve economic data (FRED)
- How fast world food prices are rising: FAO Food Price Index, read from FAO
- US dollar against emerging-market currencies: Federal Reserve Board, H.10 release
- Conflict in the news: Caldara & Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk index
Using the DGSI
You may quote, chart or report DGSI readings, including in news, research and paid publications. Credit them as "Source: DELAX Global Strain Index (DGSI), delaxcom.org" and do not alter the figures. The full terms →
We measure the risk. You make the call.
DELAX describes exposure. It is not investment advice.