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Indicators — Scenario: Baseline
WTI Crude (Peak)
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$148
WTI crude near $148/bbl — nearly double the pre-conflict price of $78.
Pre-conflict WTI: $78 · +89.7%
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Global CPI (Yr 1)
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+3.8%
Everything costs ~3.8% more in Year 1.
Stagflation Risk: HIGH
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Global GDP Loss (Yr 1)
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−1.9%
~$1.7T in lost global output.
2003 Iraq = −0.5% · 3.8× worse
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Shipping Index
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+310%
3× more to ship globally via Cape of Good Hope.
Suez/Hormuz rerouting
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Defense Spend ΔYr1
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+$680B
$680B extra in global defense budgets.
NATO · Gulf · Israel · India
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Food Price (FAO)
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+27%
Food 27% more expensive. Africa & S. Asia hardest hit.
Fertilizer + fuel · N. Africa critical
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USD/EM FX
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−14%
EM currencies lose 14% vs USD. Imports cost more.
Flight-to-safety inflows
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Conflict Duration
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18–36M
18–36 months active conflict expected.
Baseline: 24M · P(5yr): 28%
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Investor Intelligence
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Scenario:
Brent Crude — Near-Term Forecast (12 Months)
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USD/BBL · Current Month through Next 11 Months · Live EIA Anchored
Pre-conflict anchor: $78/bbl
Brent Crude — Long-Term Forecast (10 Years)
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USD/BBL · Annual · Starting Month 13 through Year 11 · Conflict Resolution Modeled
Normalization toward structural equilibrium
GDP Impact by Region
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Annual % Change vs Pre-Conflict Baseline
Inflation Rate Forecast
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CPI YoY Addition from Conflict Shock
Sector Performance Radar
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Relative Performance Score (0–100) · 12M
Shipping & Supply Chain Disruption
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Index (100 = pre-conflict) · Container Costs
Continental Economic Stress Heatmap
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Composite Stress Index (0–10) · 8 Dimensions · Year 1–10
AI Analysis Output:
Baseline
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Defense, Energy & Reconstruction Surge
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Global Additional Spend vs Pre-Conflict Baseline · $USD Billions
Executive Summary
The 2026 Iran conflict represents the most significant geopolitical shock to global energy markets since the 1973 OPEC embargo. Unlike the 2003 Iraq invasion — which was rapid and relatively contained — this conflict combines Strait of Hormuz closure risk, IAEA inspection expulsion, Gulf Coalition military mobilization, and credible Iranian ballistic and drone capacity that threatens critical infrastructure across the Arabian Peninsula and beyond.
Our Baseline Scenario (P=50%) projects a 24-month active conflict phase, Brent crude peaking at $148/bbl within months 3–6, global inflation adding 3.8 percentage points in Year 1, and a cumulative global GDP loss of approximately $4.2 trillion over three years. The Middle East, East Africa, and South Asia bear the greatest humanitarian costs.
The Pessimistic Scenario (P=28%) involves Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggering oil at $195–220/bbl, global recession in Years 1–2, and a potential fracture of the petrodollar system. The Optimistic Scenario (P=22%) assumes ceasefire by Month 10, oil at $105, and rapid reconstruction demand driving MENA equities higher.
Investor Action: Overweight defense (RTX, LMT, BAESY), energy producers (XOM, CVX, SHEL), and reconstruction (FLR, MDR). Underweight aviation, luxury consumer, and EM sovereigns. Hedge with gold, USD, and GSCI commodity futures.
Key Assumptions & Methodology
Scenario Framework
- Baseline (P=50%): 24-month conflict, partial Hormuz disruption
- Optimistic (P=22%): Ceasefire Month 10, Hormuz reopens Month 8
- Pessimistic (P=28%): Full Hormuz closure 6+ months, regional expansion
- Black swan tail: Nuclear threshold breach (P=4%) not modeled
Historical Precedents
- 1973 Oil Embargo: CPI +9%, GDP −2.9% OECD (18-month lag)
- 1990–91 Gulf War: Oil spike +140%, receded in 6 months
- 2003 Iraq: Minimal oil disruption; different dynamics
- 2022 Russia-Ukraine: Energy price +200%, Europe CPI +10%
- Hormuz closure analog: 1987–88 Tanker War partial disruption
Energy Assumptions
- Iran produces ~3.3M bbl/day (pre-conflict)
- Hormuz: 20% of global oil, 18% of LNG transits daily
- SPR releases offset ~8–12 weeks of supply gap
- Saudi spare capacity: ~2.5M bbl/day short-term relief
- Shale ramp: 6–9 month lag to meaningful volume increase
Macro Model Inputs
- +$10/bbl oil → +0.3% CPI (import-heavy economies)
- Shipping +100% → −0.4% global trade volume
- War confidence shock: −0.5 to −1.2% GDP premium
- Defense crowd-out: +1% GDP defense = −0.2% private invest.
- Flight-to-USD: −10–20% EM FX basket
Data Sources
- EIA.gov: Oil supply, reserve capacity (live via /api/eia-oil)
- IMF WEO: GDP baselines and forecasts
- BIS: EM currency and debt exposure
- SIPRI: Defense expenditure data
- FAO: Food price and food security indices
- Baltic Exchange: Shipping rate benchmarks
Key Uncertainties
- Iranian ballistic missile accuracy vs Saudi oil infrastructure
- Chinese policy: sanctions compliance vs sanctions-busting
- US domestic political appetite for sustained engagement
- Alternative energy substitution speed (LNG, renewables)
- Global recession contagion via credit market tightening
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Scenario Impact — Baseline
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Month-by-Month Economic Forecast — Year 1
Continental & Sub-Regional Impact Matrix
| Region | GDP Yr1 | Inflation Add. | Energy Exposure | Food Security | Currency Risk | Debt Stress | Recovery | Signal |
|---|
GDP Impact by Region
Year 1–3 Cumulative
Regional Inflation Comparison
CPI Add-On · 4-Year View
Sector-by-Sector Investment Signals
| Sector | 12M Signal | 3-Yr Signal | 12M Return Est. | 3-Yr Return Est. | Key Driver | Key Risk | Top Names |
|---|
Major Risk Factors & Black-Swan Triggers
Risk Probability Matrix
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Impact (x-axis) vs Probability (y-axis)
Systemic Risk Index Over Time
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Composite across 10-Year Horizon
Black Swan Trigger Events
🔴 Hormuz Full Closure (>90 Days)
- Probability: 18% baseline → 55% pessimistic
- Oil: $190–220/bbl within 3 weeks of closure
- Global recession virtually guaranteed in 2 quarters
- G7 emergency coordination + SPR drawdown
- Petrodollar fracture risk; BRICS rails accelerate
🔴 Saudi Oil Infrastructure Strike
- Abqaiq/Ras Tanura precision strike (2019 analog ×10)
- Removes 8–10M bbl/day for 3–12 months
- Oil: $200+; airline industry collapse in 4 weeks
- IMF emergency SDR; sovereign downgrades cascade
🟡 Regional Expansion (Lebanon/Iraq/Syria)
- Probability: 35% baseline; rises with duration
- Mediterranean shipping disruption; Suez transit risk
- European energy crisis 2.0 (LNG re-routing)
- Turkish geopolitical pivot; NATO Article 5 ambiguity
🟡 Chinese Sanctions Defiance
- China buys sanctioned Iranian oil at 40% discount
- Secondary sanctions on Chinese banks → decoupling
- USD reserve share drops 3–5% by 2030
- Global trade fragmentation accelerates 2–3 years
🟤 EM Sovereign Debt Crisis
- Pakistan, Egypt, Ghana, Sri Lanka forex crunch
- IMF bailout pipeline overwhelmed; frontier contagion
- Political instability in 5–8 countries by Year 2
- Refugee surge into Europe and Gulf states
🟢 Reconstruction Opportunity
- Post-conflict: $800B–$1.2T demand (MENA, 5–15yr)
- Defense/dual-use stocks surge 40–80% at ceasefire
- Gulf SWF deploy into Western infrastructure
- LNG terminal investment boom in EU
- Green energy: $500B+ in solar/wind mandates by 2030
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Conflict-relevant quick picks
XOM
LMT
RTX
GLD
DAL
XLE
ITA
TLT
BP.L
SHEL.L
2222.SR
TSM
HSBA.L
RR.L
CCJ
FXI
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Scenario:
BASELINE