A free portfolio stress test for geopolitical risk: what each crisis does to your holdings
Put in what you hold. The stress test shows what each crisis we model could do to it, in three cases from calm to severe, next to the odds of each case and how sure we are of the number. It describes exposure: it never tells you what to buy or sell.
How it works
- 1Add your holdings: a ticker, the number of shares and what you paid. Or load an example, or import a spreadsheet.
- 2Each holding is matched to a sector the model scores. A name outside our list is classified from its listed industry (a name whose industry fits no sector counts as the broad market, and the Workspace says so); if the lookup fails, it is left unscored and said so.
- 3Each crisis is run on the whole book case by case. Holdings are weighted by what you paid for them.
- 4You see every crisis side by side each with its own trust label. They are never added together: they are different futures, not one.
A worked example
The example book
The Workspace's Energy-heavy example book: 100 ExxonMobil (XOM) at $114, 60 Chevron (CVX) at $160, 30 SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) at $213, 40 Shell (SHEL) at $96. $31,230 in all.
Most exposed: US tariff shock. In its severe case (Re-escalation, about 1 in 5 (unlikely)) the model shows this book −18.1%. The odds sit beside the figure; they are not multiplied into it.
| Crisis | Calm case | Middle case | Severe case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz EMPIRICAL | +2.1%about 1 in 4 (unlikely) | +15.8%about 1 in 2 (roughly even chance) | +25.9%about 1 in 4 (unlikely) |
| Taiwan Strait UNPRICED | +0.1%about 6 in 10 (likely) | −3.9%about 1 in 4 (unlikely) | −6.5%about 1 in 8 (very unlikely) |
| Red Sea UNPRICED | 0.0%about 1 in 7 (very unlikely) | −1.6%about 7 in 10 (likely) | −2.5%about 1 in 5 (unlikely) |
| Panama Canal drought UNPRICED | Watched, not scored: we give no holding a figure for this crisis. | ||
| Korean Peninsula conflict UNPRICED | 0.0%about 9 in 10 (very likely) | −2.0%about 1 in 14 (very unlikely) | −15.5%about 1 in 33 (almost no chance) |
| US tariff shock EMPIRICAL · one real event, replayed | — | 0.0%about 6 in 10 (likely) | −18.1%about 1 in 5 (unlikely) |
| Russia–Ukraine war EMPIRICAL · one real event, replayed | — | 0.0%about 8 in 10 (likely) | +8.8%about 1 in 10 (very unlikely) |
No figure (—): US tariff shock, Relief: We do not size relief: the relief we measured (the May 2025 truce, the February 2026 ruling) moved shares in ways no rule we tested could predict. Russia–Ukraine war, Ceasefire: We do not size a ceasefire: past peace news (the 2022 Istanbul talks, the grain deal, the 2025 Trump–Putin talks) moved shares in ways our test could not predict.
Run it on your own holdings
The Workspace runs this on any book you enter, free and with no sign-in. The figures are computed in your browser. A ticker outside our list is looked up only to find its industry, and a book is saved to an account only if you sign in and save it (privacy).
What sits behind the numbers
We measure the risk. You make the call.
DELAX describes exposure. It is not investment advice. The modelled moves are a map of exposure, not price forecasts.