Every part of the dashboard, the Workspace, the GEO Intel globe, your account, Pro and Ask DELAX, explained once. For a step-by-step start in the Workspace, see How to use the Workspace; for pictures, take the tour.
DELAX GEO-RISK shows how a geopolitical crisis could reach investments. Each crisis we track is a risk structure with three scenarios, the odds we put on each, and a model of how each kind of investment (a sector) tends to move. Every figure says how it was arrived at: measured from a real event, or a careful estimate.
It describes exposure: what a crisis could do to a sector or a book, and why. It never tells you what to buy, sell or hold.
Start on the dashboard to see a crisis, or open the Workspace to score your own holdings. The methodology explains how the model works and what we got wrong.
2 The dashboard
Crisis switcher. The row of crisis names at the top picks the risk structure (for example Hormuz / Iran, Taiwan or the Red Sea). Its trust label sits beside it. Everything on the page follows the crisis you pick.
Scenario buttons. Each crisis has three scenarios, from calmer to worse. Picking one changes every figure on the page.
Today's briefing. The first card: the state of things today (the stress index and the oil price), the sectors the model expects to lose most (EXPOSED) and gain most (BENEFICIARY), and the one development that would change the picture (WATCH). It is built from data, with no AI, and keeps the model's figures apart from market readings. The “?” beside it explains the terms.
What DELAX GEO-RISK does. A short introduction you can fold away.
Score your book. A shortcut into the Workspace: start from an example book or enter your own holdings.
Global risk landscape. Every crisis we model, with how sure we are of each and its most likely scenario.
The Strain Index. One number for whether background pressure is tighter than usual, with its history chart. See The Strain Index.
Ask DELAX box. Under the indicator tiles: example questions for the crisis on screen and a question line. It opens Ask DELAX.
Explain this number. Click any indicator tile for a plain-English explanation of what drives it, built from the model's own figures (an AI explanation; it counts towards your daily AI explanations).
What if. A lever that moves one input yourself (peak oil price for Hormuz, chip capacity offline for Taiwan) and shows how each sector's modelled move changes. It is part of Pro. The Red Sea has no lever.
Export. PDF and CSV of the dashboard. Reports are part of Pro.
3 The indicator tiles
The tiles under the briefing are the scenario's key figures for the crisis on screen. The small “i” on each says where the figure comes from, and whether it is measured or our judgment.
Brent Crude (Peak). The highest daily oil price in the scenario. Hormuz only.
Global CPI (Yr 1). How much hotter everyday prices run in year one.
Global GDP Loss (Yr 1). The world output lost in year one.
Shipping Index. How much more shipping costs.
Defense Spend ΔYr1. The change in defence spending in year one.
Food Prices (FAO). The scenario's food-price figure, with the latest measured FAO Food Price Index beside it.
USD/EM FX. Pressure on emerging-market currencies against the dollar.
Conflict Duration. How long the scenario is expected to last, in months. A range we judge; there is no duration model.
Taiwan and the Red Sea show their own tiles (for example advanced chip capacity offline, or “market pricing: none”). A crisis without a channel says so rather than showing a number. Plain English, the switch above the tiles, adds one sentence under each tile saying what it means.
4 The dashboard's tabs
The row of tabs under the crisis switcher: Charts, Summary, Monthly, Continental, News and GEO Intel.
Charts.Brent Crude — What Happened, and How High Each Scenario Goes (oil under each scenario, with what actually happened); for Taiwan, Advanced Chip Capacity Offline — Long Horizon; GDP Impact by Region and Inflation Rate Forecast; Sector Exposure (modelled), each sector's modelled move; and the Continental Economic Stress Heatmap. The regional figures are our judgment, being sourced.
Summary. The Executive Summary (what happened), then the scenario framework, historical precedents, energy assumptions, macro model inputs, data sources, key uncertainties, and the Scenario Odds vs World-Economy Impact chart.
Monthly. The first year month by month under the selected scenario, with a CSV download.
Continental. Impact by region and sub-region: GDP, inflation, energy, food, currency and debt stress, with GDP Impact by Region and Regional Inflation Comparison charts. These figures are our judgment, being sourced.
News. Live market headlines and conflict alerts (GDELT), kept apart from the model's figures. The alert line at the top opens it.
GEO Intel. The Intel Globe, a world map of the crisis. See The GEO Intel globe.
The settings button (the gear at the top of the dashboard) opens Settings:
Font size. A slider for larger or smaller text.
Color-blind mode. Switches the charts and colours to a colour-blind-safe palette.
Theme. Switches between the dark terminal look and the light classic look. Your choice is remembered on this device.
Beginner mode. The same as the Plain English switch: a plain sentence under each figure.
What if. Opens the What-if lever (Pro).
The globe has its own text-size buttons.
6 The GEO Intel globe
The Global Risk Globe (also called the Intel Globe). Open it from the GEO Intel tab on the dashboard. It follows the crisis and scenario you picked there. On an iPhone it opens in a new tab. Full screen is the ⛶ button.
The map. Countries shaded by stress for the selected crisis and scenario. Click a country for its panel.
Data Layers. Switch what the map shows: Macro (stress), Market (exposure), Geopolitical, Debt Stress, Central Banks (policy), Capital Flows, Climate Risk, and GDELT Live (events).
Scenario. The crisis's three scenarios, named as on the dashboard.
Scenario player. Plays the scenario month by month on the map (play, reset, speed).
Time horizon. A slider from now to 36 months ahead.
Stress weights. Sliders that change how much energy dependence, inflation, FX pressure, trade disruption and financial stress count in the map's stress shading.
Key markets. Live readings (Brent, WTI, natural gas, VIX, the dollar index, gold, the US 10-year yield, emerging-market shares) when the live feed answers; a dash when it does not.
Chokepoints. Hormuz, Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Malacca and others, each with its status; click one to fly to it.
Opportunity scanner. Flips the view to countries that come out ahead in the scenario.
Country panel. A country's Stress Trend and CPI Trajectory charts, Model Insights, an AI briefing on how the crisis reaches it (an AI explanation), and Stock Signals / Investor Notes: an AI note on a few listed names there, each labelled EXPOSED, BENEFICIARY or WATCH (an AI explanation). Like the rest of the country panel, it rests on the globe's country figures, which are our judgment, being sourced.
Shock engine. The chain from the conflict to oil, inflation, interest rates, growth, emerging-market pressure and food, with the countries most hit (or helped).
Share card. An image of the current view or of a country, to save or share.
The globe's country-by-country figures (stress, oil dependence, inflation, growth, currency and trade) and its conflict scores are our judgment, being sourced: each will get a published source or be removed. DELAX's model itself works by sector and by broad region, not country by country.
Search and research. Look up any stock, fund or index by name or ticker: its price chart (one month to its whole history, with a log scale), key numbers, how the model expects its sector to move under each scenario, and an AI analysis of its exposure (an AI explanation).
Watchlist. Names you follow, with live prices, kept on this device. Add with the star; remove with the ×.
Your holdings. Load an example book (defense-heavy, energy-heavy, retail investor, retiree), import a spreadsheet (.xlsx, .csv) or a text PDF statement (read on your device, never uploaded), or add a holding by hand: ticker, shares and average cost.
Covered, classified, unverified. A name the model scores directly is covered. Any other ticker is classified from its listed industry onto one of the model's sectors; you can also give it a sector yourself (unverified).
Scenario impact: the Conflict Exposure Score. How much the modelled part of your book would move under the active crisis and scenario, compared with no crisis: net exposed (it falls) or net beneficiary (it rises), in dollars per thousand invested.
By channel and by holding. Where the effect comes from (oil, shipping, inflation, currencies, growth) and each holding's own move.
Which crisis reaches your book. The same book under every crisis we model and its three scenarios, each with its trust label. Tap a row to switch to that crisis and open a plain-spoken explainer of it.
Value at Risk. A historical simulation of realised weekly returns for the names it covers. Not a forecast.
Saved books. Name your holdings and save the book. Signed out, a book stays on this device; signed in, it follows you to every device. How many you can keep depends on your plan.
Reports. PDF, Excel, CSV, or a shareable image card of your book (Pro).
Browse by sector. Every name the model scores, grouped by sector with each sector's modelled move; tap a ticker to research it or + to add it.
Moving around. On a computer, the sidebar on the left; on a phone, the bar along the bottom (Search, Holdings, Impact, Sectors, More).
8 Ask DELAX
The bubble with eyes at the bottom right of the dashboard and the Workspace (and the Ask DELAX box on the dashboard). Ask in your own words, in your own language, about a crisis, a scenario, a sector, a stock, a position you hold (how many shares of a stock you bought, and at what price), your book, or the site itself.
Answers come from the model and the site, with their sources under “Sources”. Every figure is checked against those sources before you see it.
Withheld answers. If an answer gave a figure it could not back, read as advice, left out how sure the model is, or said the site lacks something without a fact to show it, it is held back and the line says which. Try asking again in other words.
Follow-ups. “What about Taiwan?” knows what it follows: your last two questions and answers go with it.
Your book. Your working book goes with each question. Signed in with no working book on the device, you can pick a saved book in the panel.
Hide it. The × folds the bubble into a small tab on the right edge; the tab brings it back.
Privacy. We don't store your questions or the answers: the conversation stays in your browser tab. Each answer counts as one AI explanation. See the privacy page.
9 Your account
Sign in from the person icon at the top right: with Google, Microsoft, or an email and password. An account is free.
The account menu (the same icon once signed in) holds sign-out and, for Pro, email alerts.
Shared computers. Signing out removes your account's books from that device; they stay safe in your account.
Delete your account by emailing contact@delaxcom.com from the address you signed in with. Its saved books and watchlist are deleted with it.
10 Email alerts
Part of Pro. Open the account menu and choose Email alerts: a line for any saved book (“tell me if it falls below −X%”), odds moving, a review being triggered, a trust label changing, or a crisis being tested against the market again. Choose the crises to follow, and whether to hear as it happens or in a weekly summary on Mondays.
The bell at the top shows how many alerts you have not read. It appears only when alerts are on for your account.
Pause alerts for a week from the same panel, or switch them off.
Unsubscribe in one click from the link at the bottom of any alert email.
11 Free and Pro
The dashboard, the Workspace's scoring and the globe are free. Pro adds more AI explanations a day, more saved books, the What-if lever, reports and exports, and email alerts. The prices, the daily limits and the plans side by side are on the Pro page; a free trial can be requested on the trial page. Pro explains exposure in more depth; it never tells you what to buy or sell.
12 The Strain Index (DGSI)
The DELAX Global Strain Index is one number for whether background pressure (oil prices, US consumer prices, world food prices, the dollar against emerging-market currencies, and conflict attention) is tighter than usual. Zero is normal; above zero is tighter. It is built by DELAX and rebuilt once a day from published data, and its history is on the dashboard.
How it is built is on the methodology page; every change to its method is in the changelog. You may quote and cite the headline reading with credit; the terms say how.
13 How sure the figures are
Trust labels. Each crisis carries one: EMPIRICAL means fitted to how markets actually moved in a real event; UNPRICED means the event never happened, or markets did not price it, so the figures are careful estimates anchored to published research. The labels are explained on the methodology page.
Odds. Each scenario's chance is shown as a percentage and in words (“roughly even”, “unlikely”).
The review stamp. Each crisis is reviewed on a schedule, at least twice a year, and its odds and figures change only at a review. If something happens that would change the model, the stamp turns amber (“review triggered”) until the review is done.
Corrections. When we get something wrong, we say so on the methodology page.
14 Phones, the app and offline
Phones. Every page works on a phone; the Workspace has its own bar along the bottom.
Install it as an app. In your phone's browser, use “Add to Home Screen” (Safari: the share button; Chrome: the menu). It opens like an app.
Offline. Pages you have opened before still open without a connection, from the copy kept on your device. Live data (prices, news, the index) needs a connection.