Gold stocks and geopolitical risk: what each crisis does to them
We model 7 crises. For each, the model gives a typical holding in every sector a move in three cases, from calm to severe. Here is gold in each, next to the odds of that case and how sure we are of the number.
What each crisis does to gold stocks
Strait of Hormuz / Iran Conflict EMPIRICAL
| Case | Odds | Goldmodelled move |
|---|---|---|
| Calm caseNormalisation | about 1 in 4 (unlikely) | ▲ +1.8% |
| Middle caseArmed Truce | about 1 in 2 (roughly even chance) | ▲ +5.0% |
| Severe caseRe-escalation / Second Closure | about 1 in 4 (unlikely) | ▲ +15.1% |
These sensitivities were measured against the real 2026 Hormuz war.
Taiwan Strait / Semiconductor Chokepoint UNPRICED
| Case | Odds | Goldmodelled move |
|---|---|---|
| Calm caseGray-Zone Pressure | about 6 in 10 (likely) | ▲ +1.0% |
| Middle caseQuarantine / Blockade | about 1 in 4 (unlikely) | ▲ +15.1% |
| Severe caseInvasion / Fab Denial | about 1 in 8 (very unlikely) | ▲ +30.4% |
No Taiwan blockade has ever happened, so these are reasoned estimates anchored to Bloomberg Economics — a map, not a forecast.
US tariff shock EMPIRICAL · one real event, replayed
| Case | Odds | Goldmodelled move |
|---|---|---|
| Calm caseRelief | about 1 in 5 (unlikely) | — |
| Middle caseCurrent Law | about 6 in 10 (likely) | 0.0% |
| Severe caseRe-escalation | about 1 in 5 (unlikely) | ▼ −9.6% |
Relief: no figure. We do not size relief: the relief we measured (the May 2025 truce, the February 2026 ruling) moved shares in ways no rule we tested could predict.
Measured from one real event: the re-escalation case replays what shares did in the week after April 2025's tariffs, as they moved then. Not scaled to any other size.
Russia–Ukraine war EMPIRICAL · one real event, replayed
| Case | Odds | Goldmodelled move |
|---|---|---|
| Calm caseCeasefire | about 1 in 7 (very unlikely) | — |
| Middle caseGrinding War | about 8 in 10 (likely) | 0.0% |
| Severe caseWider War | about 1 in 10 (very unlikely) | ▲ +10.3% |
Ceasefire: no figure. We do not size a ceasefire: past peace news (the 2022 Istanbul talks, the grain deal, the 2025 Trump–Putin talks) moved shares in ways our test could not predict.
Measured from one real event: the wider-war case replays what shares did in the first two weeks after the 2022 invasion, as they moved then. Not scaled to any other size.
No figure for gold in: Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb, Panama Canal drought, Korean Peninsula conflict. We give the sector no number there. That is not the same as saying it does not move.
What actually happened
- In the 2026 Iran war: +8.3% against the S&P 500, measured from daily prices. How it was measured →
The names we score in this sector
Coverage, not picks: these are the shares and funds the Workspace scores as gold.
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Invesco DB Commodity Index Fund (DBC), Franco-Nevada (FNV), VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Newmont (NEM), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)
Your own holdings
The figures are for a typical holding in the sector. To see how each crisis reaches the shares you hold, add them in the Workspace: free, no sign-in needed.
We measure the risk. You make the call.
DELAX describes exposure. It is not investment advice. The modelled moves are a map of exposure, not price forecasts.