Agriculture stocks and geopolitical risk: what each crisis does to them
We model 7 crises. For each, the model gives a typical holding in every sector a move in three cases, from calm to severe. Here is agriculture & food in each, next to the odds of that case and how sure we are of the number.
What each crisis does to agriculture stocks
Strait of Hormuz / Iran Conflict EMPIRICAL
| Case | Odds | Agriculture & foodmodelled move |
|---|---|---|
| Calm caseNormalisation | about 1 in 4 (unlikely) | ▲ +0.3% |
| Middle caseArmed Truce | about 1 in 2 (roughly even chance) | ▲ +4.6% |
| Severe caseRe-escalation / Second Closure | about 1 in 4 (unlikely) | ▲ +10.2% |
These sensitivities were measured against the real 2026 Hormuz war.
Taiwan Strait / Semiconductor Chokepoint UNPRICED
| Case | Odds | Agriculture & foodmodelled move |
|---|---|---|
| Calm caseGray-Zone Pressure | about 6 in 10 (likely) | ▼ −0.1% |
| Middle caseQuarantine / Blockade | about 1 in 4 (unlikely) | ▼ −7.1% |
| Severe caseInvasion / Fab Denial | about 1 in 8 (very unlikely) | ▼ −12.8% |
No Taiwan blockade has ever happened, so these are reasoned estimates anchored to Bloomberg Economics — a map, not a forecast.
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb UNPRICED
| Case | Odds | Agriculture & foodmodelled move |
|---|---|---|
| Calm caseSuez Return | about 1 in 7 (very unlikely) | 0.0% |
| Middle caseSaudi Blockade Enforced | about 7 in 10 (likely) | ▼ −1.6% |
| Severe caseStrait Closed | about 1 in 5 (unlikely) | ▼ −2.6% |
The Red Sea reroute happened, but listed shares did not price it, so these are reasoned sensitivities to world growth — a map, not a forecast. Shipping shares carry no figure.
Korean Peninsula conflict UNPRICED
| Case | Odds | Agriculture & foodmodelled move |
|---|---|---|
| Calm caseTense Standoff | about 9 in 10 (very likely) | 0.0% |
| Middle caseRegime Collapse | about 1 in 14 (very unlikely) | ▼ −2.0% |
| Severe caseWar | about 1 in 33 (almost no chance) | ▼ −15.6% |
A Korean war has never happened, so these are estimates anchored to Bloomberg Economics, with share effects borrowed from the Taiwan model: a map, not a forecast.
US tariff shock EMPIRICAL · one real event, replayed
| Case | Odds | Agriculture & foodmodelled move |
|---|---|---|
| Calm caseRelief | about 1 in 5 (unlikely) | — |
| Middle caseCurrent Law | about 6 in 10 (likely) | 0.0% |
| Severe caseRe-escalation | about 1 in 5 (unlikely) | ▼ −11.9% |
Relief: no figure. We do not size relief: the relief we measured (the May 2025 truce, the February 2026 ruling) moved shares in ways no rule we tested could predict.
Measured from one real event: the re-escalation case replays what shares did in the week after April 2025's tariffs, as they moved then. Not scaled to any other size.
Russia–Ukraine war EMPIRICAL · one real event, replayed
| Case | Odds | Agriculture & foodmodelled move |
|---|---|---|
| Calm caseCeasefire | about 1 in 7 (very unlikely) | — |
| Middle caseGrinding War | about 8 in 10 (likely) | 0.0% |
| Severe caseWider War | about 1 in 10 (very unlikely) | ▲ +16.1% |
Ceasefire: no figure. We do not size a ceasefire: past peace news (the 2022 Istanbul talks, the grain deal, the 2025 Trump–Putin talks) moved shares in ways our test could not predict.
Measured from one real event: the wider-war case replays what shares did in the first two weeks after the 2022 invasion, as they moved then. Not scaled to any other size.
No figure for agriculture & food in: Panama Canal drought. We give the sector no number there. That is not the same as saying it does not move.
What actually happened
- In the 2026 Iran war: +16.9% against the S&P 500, measured from daily prices. How it was measured →
The names we score in this sector
Coverage, not picks: these are the shares and funds the Workspace scores as agriculture & food.
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Bunge (BG), CF Industries (CF), Corteva (CTVA), Mosaic (MOS), Nutrien (NTR)
Your own holdings
The figures are for a typical holding in the sector. To see how each crisis reaches the shares you hold, add them in the Workspace: free, no sign-in needed.
We measure the risk. You make the call.
DELAX describes exposure. It is not investment advice. The modelled moves are a map of exposure, not price forecasts.