China stocks and geopolitical risk: what each crisis does to them
We model 7 crises. For each, the model gives a typical holding in every sector a move in three cases, from calm to severe. Here is china equities in each, next to the odds of that case and how sure we are of the number.
What each crisis does to china stocks
Taiwan Strait / Semiconductor Chokepoint UNPRICED
| Case | Odds | China equitiesmodelled move |
|---|---|---|
| Calm caseGray-Zone Pressure | about 6 in 10 (likely) | ▼ −1.8% |
| Middle caseQuarantine / Blockade | about 1 in 4 (unlikely) | ▼ −34.2% |
| Severe caseInvasion / Fab Denial | about 1 in 8 (very unlikely) | ▼ −59.6% |
No Taiwan blockade has ever happened, so these are reasoned estimates anchored to Bloomberg Economics — a map, not a forecast.
Korean Peninsula conflict UNPRICED
| Case | Odds | China equitiesmodelled move |
|---|---|---|
| Calm caseTense Standoff | about 9 in 10 (very likely) | 0.0% |
| Middle caseRegime Collapse | about 1 in 14 (very unlikely) | ▼ −4.5% |
| Severe caseWar | about 1 in 33 (almost no chance) | ▼ −35.1% |
A Korean war has never happened, so these are estimates anchored to Bloomberg Economics, with share effects borrowed from the Taiwan model: a map, not a forecast.
No figure for china equities in: Strait of Hormuz / Iran Conflict, Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb, Panama Canal drought, US tariff shock, Russia–Ukraine war. We give the sector no number there. That is not the same as saying it does not move.
Your own holdings
The figures are for a typical holding in the sector. To see how each crisis reaches the shares you hold, add them in the Workspace: free, no sign-in needed.
We measure the risk. You make the call.
DELAX describes exposure. It is not investment advice. The modelled moves are a map of exposure, not price forecasts.