Unpriced is not the same as unlikely
Every risk model on this platform carries an evidence tier: EMPIRICAL, MODELLED, or UNPRICED. The Taiwan Strait structure is marked UNPRICED, and it will stay that way until the evidence changes.
That is not a gap in the work. It is the result of the work.
What we tested
To publish a sector beta — a number saying this holding moves this much under this scenario — you need a historical episode where the risk was real enough to move prices, and clean enough to read. We looked for one. Five analogues were tested against the Taiwan structure. None produced a usable signal.
The December 2025 escalation came closest, and it is the most instructive failure. Foundry pricing did move — but it moved the wrong way relative to the risk. An escalation that should have compressed semiconductor valuations was accompanied by excess return in the opposite direction. A signal that inverts is not a muted signal. It is evidence that the market was pricing something else entirely.
The April 2024 Hualien earthquake damaged fabrication capacity directly, which is as close to a physical supply shock as the sector has experienced. It left no usable price signal either. Neither did the 2021 shortage, which was genuine scarcity without geopolitical cause.
What that means
The honest conclusion is narrow and uncomfortable: the market has not tested this risk. Not that it has assessed it and found it small — that it has not assessed it at all in a way we can measure.
That is a warning, not a reassurance. A risk with no price history has no anchor when it arrives. The 2026 Hormuz episode is the counter-example: the strait had a long record of pricing, so when the war came, energy and shipping repriced along paths the market already knew. Taiwan has no such path.
What we publish instead
Under the Taiwan structure the platform publishes an exposure map — which holdings sit in the transmission channels, and why — anchored to Bloomberg Economics' February 2026 estimates. It does not publish sector betas, and it does not publish forward price targets for individual tickers.
It would be trivial to generate those numbers. Fit something to the nearest analogue, apply a scenario multiplier, print a figure to one decimal place. It would look exactly as authoritative as a calibrated number, and a reader would have no way to tell the difference.
That is precisely why we don't.
The tier badge sits on the face of the product, above every figure, before any number is read. When it says UNPRICED, it means we could have given you a number and chose not to.